Centre for Euro-Asian Studies - Kasenov Archive

Kasenov Archive

The Kasenov Archive on Central Asia is a valuable collection of books and papers (both published and unpublished), - written by Dr. Oumirserik Kasenov. The Archive was presented to the Centre for Euro-Asian Studies by Mrs. Ragna Kassenova, widow of the late Dr. Oumirserik Kasenov, a famous scholar. Dr. Oumirserik Kasenov was Director of the Kazakhstan Institute for Strategic Studies; Member of the Special Advisory Board on Disarmament Matters to the Secretary General of the United Nations; Vice-Rector and Professor at Kainar University, Almaty; Director of the Centre for Central Asian and International Studies.

Some of the archive's papers are available on request. To receive copies of papers electronically, please e-mail the archive's coordinator, Miss Togzhan Kassenova.

International Relations and Foreign Policy Issues, 1992-98

Central Asia on the Eve of the 21st Century: the Second Great Game?

After the collapse of the USSR, successor of the Russian Empire, and the emergence on the political map of the world of the new independent post-Soviet states, as it appears, the second "big game" around Central Asia has begun, this time with other key players and in the drastically changed system of international relations...

Central Asia: national, regional and global aspects of security

What are military threats for newly independent states of Central Asia, which have become independent subjects of international relations and have to rely primarily upon themselves for ensuring their national security?

There are no mentions of probable enemies in the documents concerning the military policy of Central Asian states; however, these documents do indicate the sources of potential military danger...

Situation in Tajikistan and around it

On December 23 1996 in Moscow in the President-hotel, the President of Tajikistan Emomali Rakhmonov and the leader of the opposition Said Abdullo Nuri signed an Agreement on National Reconciliation.

After 4 years of the civil war light finally appeared at the end of the tunnel. The Tajik people tired of war have received a real opportunity to establish peace in the country. Will these hopes come true? That depends on many factors - both internal and external...

Taleban, Afghanistan and Central Asia

As Indian researcher K. Warikoo notes: "Transborder movements of armed Tajik and Afghan Islamic extremists and drug and weapon smuggling have become the main source of destabilisation for the whole region of Central Asia." In fact, there will be no stability in Central Asia if Afghanistan remains a platform for armed penetrations, weapon and drug trafficking. However, it's too early to talk about a potential military threat of the Taleban movement to the states of Central Asia...

Changing Eurasia and Eurasian Security

General globalisation and simultaneously going regionalization of international relations, significant tendency of turning from geopolitics to geoeconomics, from bipolar world to multipolar after the end of the "Cold War" have taken place on the eve of the 21st century. One of the most important consequences of the break up of the USSR is the disappearance of the so-called "iron curtain", which separated the people of the Soviet Empire from the outside world. That was the event, which caused tectonic changes in the geopolitical landscape of Eurasia...

"Clash of Civilisations" Can Happen Because of Caspian Oil

The stakes in the "Great Game" for Caspian oil are extremely high. Geopolitical rivalry in the region because of Caspian oil can cause a "Clash of Civilisations" predicted by Harvard Professor S. Huntington...

Caspian Sea: Interest and Strategy of Kazakhstan

This topic can basically be defined through the major three issues concerning the Caspian Sea. The first issue is the legal status of the Caspian. As it is well known the legal status has not been defined yet, that causes some problems.

Second, very important issue for Kazakhstan is the export routes for oil, which, in its turn, has a great impact on the issue of regional and world security.

The last issue, and it seems, one of the most sensitive, is the possible "clash of civilizations" which could be caused by Caspian oil...

The Caspian Sea: Legal Status, Oil and International Security

Abundant oil resources discovered in the Caspian Sea might become an apple of discord among Russia, Azerbaijan and other Caspian states. Some other states outside the region also have prospects for Caspian oil and gas. The proven reserves of hydrocarbons discovered in the investigated sectors of the Caspian offshore equal approximately 12 billion tons of hydrocarbons, which constitutes about 3% of the world reserves. They consist of 7 billion tons of oil and 5 trillion cubic metres of gas...

Resignation of Suharto: Lessons of Indonesian Crisis

The squall of the students demonstrations, which took place in Indonesia since February and later the mass disturbances, where over 500 people were killed in May 1998 compelled Suharto to retire, the President who ruled for 32 years. It marks the beginning of "the new order" set by him in 1966, which seemed to unshakeable.

The lessons of the Indonesian crisis should be learned by Indonesia and by many other developing countries as well.

The authoritarian regime in Indonesia as well as in other countries in the south-eastern and eastern Asia helped to achieve good results in the modernisation of the country, but it didn't save the country form the deepest social, economic and political crisis.

It raises many questions concerning the mutual dependence of the democracy and development in Eastern and Western countries, civilised basis for the public progress, specific mentality of the Asian people, which is embodied in the concept of "Asian values", the possibility of rejection the democracy of the Anglo-Saxon type in the Asian countries...

On the Creation of a Nuclear Weapon Free Zone in Central Asia

The creation of a nuclear weapon free zone in Central Asia could become an important and promising factor of strengthening of regional security. It could become another weighty contribution to the ensuring of global and regional security after the withdrawal of the nuclear weapon inherited from the USSR from the territory of Kazakhstan and the joining the Non-Proliferation Treaty as non-nuclear states by the states of Central Asia.

But there are factors, which can hinder the process of the international acknowledgement of Central Asia as a nuclear weapon free zone. What are these factors?...

Caspian Sea: to Divide Sea or Lake?

During a working meeting held in Moscow, Presidents of Kazakhstan and Russia declared their intention to complete the works on arrangement of bilateral agreement for division of the seabed of the Caspian Sea and use of its mineral resources.

The achieved Kazakhstan-Russian agreement is essentially changing the situation occurred on the determination of the legal status of the Caspian Sea.

Central Asia: Realities and Prospects for Post-Soviet Modernization

After acquiring state independence the peoples of Central Asia embarked on a new, post-Soviet stage of modernization. What are its realities and prospects?

Economic and political reforms conducted under conditions of independent development made a fundamental change in the profile of the former Soviet Asian republics. Independent access to the international arena made a basic change in their geopolitical and geo-economic role. However, the results of five years of independent development show that in such a short span of time it is impossible to overcome completely the Soviet legacy in the economy, politics, ideology, and mentality.

Integration and Disintegration Processes in the Post-Soviet Space: a View from Kazakhstan

In Kazakhstan the sense of presence and danger of internal threats is prevailing. What worries Kazakhstani citizens most is not the territorial integrity or external expansion, but the possibility of social cataclysms in connection with catastrophically deteriorating life standards. The ongoing recession aggravates the unemployment problem. The number of people living below the poverty line is growing. Salaries and pensions are not paid on time.

Papers in Russian

National Security of the Republic of Kazakhstan: "Windows of Vulnerability"

There are some serious risks and threats to the national security of the Republic of Kazakhstan, to its not jet strong independence and sovereignty, to its territorial integrity. According to commonly used classification they are defined as external and internal, and have a nature of military, political, economic, ecological, ethnodemographic risks and threats...

Caspian Sea: to Divide Sea or Lake?

During a working meeting held in Moscow, Presidents of Kazakhstan and Russia declared their intention to complete the work on arrangement of a bilateral agreement for the division of the seabed of the Caspian Sea and use of its mineral resources.

The achieved Kazakhstan-Russian agreement is essentially changing the situation which occurred when the legal status of the Caspian Sea was determined.

Central Asia: Realities and Prospects for Post-Soviet Modernization

After acquiring state independence the peoples of Central Asia embarked on a new, post-Soviet stage of modernization. What are its realities and prospects?

Economic and political reforms conducted under conditions of independent development made a fundamental change in the profile of the former Soviet Asian republics. Independent access to the international arena made a basic change in their geopolitical and geo-economic role. However, the results of five years of independent development show that in such a short span of time it is impossible to overcome completely the influence of the Soviet legacy in economic, political and ideology thinking.

Clash of Civilisations over the Caspian Oil

The stakes in the Great Game for Caspian oil are extremely high. According to the evaluations of American experts, the Caspian reserves of carbon resources consist of more than 100 billion barrel (10 times more than oil and gas reserves of Alaska). Energy resources of Caspian region are estimated in trillions of dollars.

The energy resources of the Caspian region may become one of the significant factors in the world energy balance. Nevertheless, there is no point in overestimating their role because their volume will constitute only 3 per cent of current world energy export. Of more importance is the question of what group of states will have a control over them and through the territories of what countries the oil and gas pipelines will pass.

Problems of Cooperation and Integration in Central Asia

In 1994 the Republic of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic and the Republic of Uzbekistan signed an Agreement on the Creation of a Single Economic Community which led to the beginning of the integration process in Central Asia. This is a positive and dramatically new phenomenon in Central Asia.

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