Skip to main content

Anticipating Early Data Revisions to US GDP and the Effects of Releases on Equity Markets

The effects of data uncertainty on real-time decision-making can be reduced by predicting early revisions to US GDP growth. We show that survey forecasts efficiently anticipate the first-revised estimate of GDP, but that forecasting models incorporating monthly economic indicators and daily equity returns provide superior forecasts of the second-revised estimate.We consider the implications of these findings for analyses of the impact of surprises in GDP revision announcements on equity markets, and for analyses of the impact of anticipated future revisions on announcement-day returns.

Published on 2nd August 2014
Authors Professor Michael Clements, Ana Beatriz Galvão
Series Reference ICM-2014-06