Real Estate & Planning Lunchtime Research Seminar by Dr Pei Kuang from the University of Birmingham. Title " Macroprudential policy and housing market expectations"

Abstract:

We conduct a large sample survey and experiment in the UK to study the effects of various housing market macroprudential tools on house price expectations. Participants on average revise their housing price expectations upward (downward) following a policy loosening (tightening). The effects are asymmetric with larger responses observed from policy loosening. Households reduce (increase) their plans for future spending when they revise their housing price expectations upward (downward), with renters being more sensitive compared to homeowners. We build a learning model of housing prices featuring borrowing constraints to reconcile our survey findings.

Bio :

Pei is an associate professor in Macroeconomics and co-lead of the Macroeconomics and Finance research group at the University of Birmingham. He obtained his PhD in Finance and Monetary Economics from Goethe University Frankfurt. His research focuses on empirical and theoretical analysis of expectation formation in macroeconomics and finance and their implications for housing markets, the business cycle, and macroeconomic policy design. He has published in many economic outlets including the NBER Macroeconomics Annual, Journal of Monetary Economics, and European Economic Review.