Michael Olise named best World Cup player in new index

An England vs. France final is predicted by a new Performance Football Index (PFI) - a model that assesses players using a combination of match performance data, physical traits and the level they compete at produced by Professor Radu Tunaru and Raphael Rondelot.

Olise leads, with Baturina making surprise appearance in top 10

The analysis places France’s Olise top of the global rankings, with Harry Kane second, reflecting both recent form and sustained elite performance. They are followed by a mix of established stars and rising attacking talent, including:

• Jérémy Doku in third (Belgium)

• Rayan Cherki in fifth (France)

• Lamine Yamal in seventh (Spain)

• Declan Rice in ninth (England)

Age is a key driver in these rankings. The PFI strongly favours players in the “prime age corridor”, around age 24-28. At this age, physical ability and decision-making are at a peak. Though younger stars such as Yamal rank highly, they are edged out by players slightly older, particularly when injuries are also factored in.

Notably, Croatian player Baturina features in the top 10; just one of the reasons Croatia is positioned as a potential disruptor in this year’s competition.

Professor Radu Tunaru said: “Football debates are often driven by reputation and recent headlines, but our model takes a more systematic view of performance. By combining physical attributes, match data and the level at which players compete, we can compare players on a like‑for‑like basis.

“What stands out is how consistently players in their mid‑twenties dominate the rankings, but also how data can bring less recognised players into the spotlight. These individuals may not yet be global stars, but their performances suggest they could have a significant impact on the World Cup.”

The PFI also ranks the best players over 32, with Argentina’s Emiliano Martinez coming out on top, and predictably – Lamine Yamal dominating the under 22 ranking.

What this means for the tournament

Although the model focuses on individuals, combining the top players from each nation suggests that:

• France has the strongest overall squad

• England is a close second

• Germany also ranks highly

This points to a likely France vs. England final, while Croatia, boosted by multiple highly ranked individuals could be a disruptive force. Argentina, the victor of the 2022 tournament, is ranked ninth by squad metrics, though they cannot be ruled out – especially with Messi on their side.

How the PFI works

The Performance Football Index (PFI) is a composite metric designed to rank football players by combining their physical profile, on‑pitch performance and competitive context into a single comparable score. The index takes the following into consideration:

• Static attributes such as age, height and technical roles (e.g. set‑piece duties)

• Dynamic match data such as goals, passes, tackles, and distance covered (per 90 minutes)

• Player context, with performances in stronger national teams and elite club competitions weighted more highly

• Injury and workload factor

Together, these elements produce a consistent, positive score that allows like‑for‑like comparison across players, highlighting both established stars and high-performing but less recognised talent.

Full results

Top 10 best players

1. Michael Olise
2. Harry Kane
3. Jeremy Doku
4. Mike Maignan
5. Rayan Cherki
6. Alexander Nubel
7. Lamine Yamal
8. Martin Baturina
9. Declan Rice
10. Erling Haaland

Top two players by position

Goalkeepers: Mike Maignan, Alexander Nubel

Centre-Back: Virgil van Dijk, Marc Guehi

Centre-Back: Marc Pubill, Waldemar Anton

Right-Back: Josip Stanisic, Matheus Nunes

Left-Back: Nico O’Reilly, Nuno Mendes

Defensive-Midfielder: Angelo Stiller, Vitinha

Centre-Midfielder: Declan Rice, Pedri

Attacking Midfielder: Rayan Cherki, Marin Baturina

Right Winder: Michael Olise, Lamine Yamal

Left-Winger: Jeremy Doku, Vinicius Junior

Centre-Forward: Harry Kane, Erling Haaland

Strongest teams by first 11

1. Frace
2. England
3. Germany
4. Croatia
5. Spain
6. Portugal
7. Brazil
8. Belgium
9. Argentina
10. Netherlands

Best players over 32

1. Emiliano Martinez
2. Ante Budimir
3. Virgil van Dijk
4. Mohamed Salah
5. Andrej Kramaric
6. Pascal Groß
7. Geronimo Rulli
8. Casemiro
9. Raul Jiminez
10. Luka Modric

Best players under 22

1. Lamine Yamal
2. Mike Penders
3. Nico Paz
4. Yan Diomande
5. Robin Risser
6. Desire Doue
7. Nico O’Reilly
8. Lennart Karl
9. Warren Zaire-Emery
10. Antonio Nusa

To speak with Professor Radu Tunaru or any of our academic experts, email pr@henley.ac.uk.