Trial of health appraisal model at Manchester park reveals £274m in societal savings

A new report published today from the TRUUD (Tackling the Root causes of Unhealthy Urban Development) research programme, reveals that £274m in health economic savings could be made over 25 years thanks to the planned development of Mayfield in Manchester, led by Landsec on behalf of The Mayfield Partnership.

Collaborating with developers in Manchester

The collaboration between researchers at the University of Reading Henley Business School, University of Bath Department of Economics and Landsec examined the Mayfield Park development project to assess the potential health benefits to its direct and wider communities as part of testing of the new health data valuation model. Access to the Mayfield site allowed researchers to apply new health valuation methods to a major live regeneration scheme.

The trial found that the planned development of the site could result in £274m of health economic savings over 25 years from changes set out in the 2018 Strategic Regeneration Framework. This could exceed the minimum value expected under the Local Plan by £234 million or around 5.9 times the size of benefits.

The significant savings estimated can be accounted for by the large population living on the site; the addition of substantial green space; the incorporation of flood mitigation measures, and the size and long-term dereliction of the site prior to regeneration.

The report noted that extra measures outside the current project scope for Mayfield Park such as changing major roads in the area could improve health further by reducing air pollution.

The 8,000 residents living within 300 metres of the undeveloped site before work began had a higher-than-average risk of chronic long-term disease and poor incentives for activity and active travel. Many of the expected benefits relate to health improvements due to the creation of a major new park for the city, which may help to encourage healthier, more active lives and manage flood risks.

A significant tool for urban development

The University of Bath’s HAUS (Health Appraisal of Urban Systems) model was used to consider the site for aspects that could benefit or harm health such as walking routes, cycle facilities, public transport, road collisions, air quality, noise, fear of crime, green and blue spaces, tree cover, overheating risks and access to quality food.

The HAUS data enables urban decision-makers to consider and adjust a range of built environment health factors. The resulting Mayfield Park report provides estimates of costs attributable to conditions in five different scenarios: before development, development compliant with the city’s Local Plan, completion of Mayfield Park, full delivery as set out in the 2018 Strategic Regeneration Framework and an ideal scenario.

The model has been developed by academics at the University of Bath as part of the TRUUD programme and was adopted in the Ministry of Housing, Community and Local Government’s (MHCLG) appraisal guidance earlier this year.

Kathy Pain, Professor of Real Estate Development and lead for TRUUD’s real estate intervention, said:

“The real estate research intervention team wanted to know how monetised health data could inform real estate investors about the long-term health of city communities in areas undergoing redevelopment. Our results fill a gap in evidence identified as critical to spearhead decision making that will help reduce spatial health equalities.

“I hope that the wider real estate investment community looks at the examples of the different projects and their urban contexts we have studied and investigate how they can apply similar thinking to their own projects.

“We are very grateful to Landsec for the access to their site and to members of their team. In the next stage of our research, we are examining how the findings can be used in decision-making across asset portfolios and potential application in financial appraisal.”

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